Events in the Ukraine are now big headlines and the topic of
a torrent of commentaries by experts on Russia, the European Union, NATO and
related subjects. The whole thing began after protests forced its president to
flee to Russia, followed by the Russian Federation’s annexation of Crimea as
disputes between Eastern and Western Ukraine broke out.
At the time and still now I thought it was a predictable
action and one that did not involve “invading” the Crimea since Russia has for
many years had several thousand troops already stationed there to service and
protect its military and naval facilities. Rather than wait around for the
Ukrainians to resolve their conflict, the Russians took the reasonable,
rational action of annexation. Crimea had been a part of Russia for hundreds of
years and the Ukraine was as well. The national language there is Russian.
The problems the Ukraine has encountered began with public
rejection of its president, Victor Yanukovycha, a fellow who preferred
alignment with Russia than the West. Many Ukrainians thought this was a bad
idea, but it seems now that many others had no objections. The main objections
appear to have been the dismal governance of the nation, replete with major
corruption.
The problem Vladimir Putin poses today is the problem that
Russia has always posed for any nation on its borders. From the czars to the
commissars, it has a long history of imposing control on its neighbors. They
were regarded as a buffer zone. Russia had been unsuccessfully invaded by Napoleon
and, after being betrayed by the Nazis with whom they signed a deal to split
Poland, they wanted territory between them and Europe. When the Soviet Union
collapsed in 1991, those satellite nations declared their sovereignty once
again, happy to be free and to embrace Western Europe.
NATO, a European mutual defense organization, was created to
respond to what was seen as the potential for Russian aggression. As a member,
the U.S. is committed to join in their defense. World War Two was followed by over
forty years of “containment” by the West. When in 1992 the U.S. Senate ratified
NATO expansion to include nations that bordered the former Soviet Union, it set
up the present tense situation. Ukraine, however, is not a member of NATO.
Interviewed in 1998, George Kennan, the U.S. diplomat who
was ambassador to Moscow in 1952 and who authored the “containment” policy
adopted by the U.S., said the expansion of NATO was a very bad decision.
Presciently, he said, “I think the Russians will gradually
react quite adversely and it will affect their policies,” adding “It shows so
little understanding of Russian history and Soviet history. Of course there is
going to be a bad reaction from Russia and then (the NATO expanders) will say
that we always told you that is how the Russians are—but this is just wrong.”
On April 28, the Associated Press reported that President
Obama said of increased sanctions on Russia, “We don’t yet know whether it’s
going to work.”
Nothing else in the Obama foreign policy regarding Russia
has worked since the famed “reset” in his first term so he’s probably right. On
a personal level, not just Putin, but most leaders of foreign nations have
concluded Obama is too weak and too incompetent to be treated with anything
other than the courtesy his office requires.
Thomas Graham, a former senior director for Russia on the
U.S. National Security Council staff from 2004 to 2007, recently expressed his
view of the current situation in the April 28 edition of the Financial Times.
He dismissed a new version of “containment” saying “It will not work. Nor will
it advance U.S. interests. Economically, Russian is impossible to isolate.”
That’s true, but its economy is primarily dependent on oil
and natural gas sales. If the prices of either were to fall, its economy would
go with it. As it is, money is fleeing Russia, investment has halted, and its
present threatening posture toward Ukraine may make Putin a hometown hero, but
in the rest of the world, he is trouble with a capital T. As for Ukraine, its
economy it’s even worse. But Russian pipelines runs through it to Europe. That
is reason enough for Russia to show some concern for events there.
Whatever Russia does, the West can be counted upon to wimp
out, doing little or nothing. In this case, staying out of the internal dispute
in Ukraine may be the wisest course of action.
At home we have watched the influence of the United States
decline from the day Obama took office. He has made matters worse by engaging
in the reduction of our military capabilities. Until Obama leaves office, there
is little that can be done to reverse this lamentable trend.
As the White House and the rest of us watch from the
sidelines, we will hear a lot of empty rhetoric. Putin will be called a war
monger, but he just wanted to protect Crimea. If he can covertly subvert
Ukraine enough to gain more influence over its eastern half, he will try.
I cannot weep much for a nation with historic ties to the
Nazis and one in which anti-Semitism is still virulent. This is hardly a nation
to which the U.S. should be lending millions with loan guarantees for billions.
What happens to the Ukraine is a matter for the Ukrainians
to address, not us.